6. Commodities as inflation Hedge

Balance to the Rescue

In truth, no one really knows how any asset category will perform during high inflation. Asset classes that one would expect to react positively to inflation may turn out to do the opposite for reasons that are not fully understood right now. The best reaction to inflation, from an investment standpoint, it’s probably a balanced portfolio.

It is hard to argue with the success of energy and precious metals during periods of high inflation. That doesn’t mean that you should move all or most of your money into these commodities at the first sign of rising prices. Since there are different types of inflation – and different market reactions to them – there is a strong case to be made keeping positions in stocks, money market funds, and TIPS, in addition to commodities. Because of the inflation/interest rate connection, real estate can be more speculative in nature.

A balanced portfolio will almost certainly be the best response to rising inflation. For most investors, that will probably mean adding (or increasing) positions in energy and precious metals, lightening up some on stocks, and getting out of bonds completely.

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