Category: 1. What is Hypothesis ?

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable “test anxiety” as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A “study habits” variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in a number of different ways. One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.¹ By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. How would you operationally define a variable such as aggression? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

In order to measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming other people. In this situation, the researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness.

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys are often used when it would be impossible or difficult to conduct an experiment.¹ These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a correlational study can then be used to look at how the variables are related. This type of research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually cause another to change.

In the scientific method, falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis.¹ In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that if something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

When trying to come up with a good hypothesis for your own research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the journal articles you read. Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

In order to form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: “People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels.”

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. “Birds of a feather flock together” is one example of folk wisdom that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that “People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level.”

Another important aspect of a hypothesis is that it should be based on research. Remember that the purpose of a hypothesis is to find the answer to a question. The first thing you should do if you want to answer a question is to find as much information on the topic as you can. Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing research. Then, start thinking of questions you still have. After thoroughly researching your question, you should have an educated guess about how things work. This guess about the answer to your question is where your hypothesis comes from.

Let’s imagine that you want to know why the leaves on the tree in your front yard change color in the fall. First, you would research this phenomenon. You observe what you see happen and read about the subject. You discover that the color change happens when the temperature cools. What question does this information make you ask?

You come up with the following question: ‘Does temperature cause the leaves to change color on the tree in my front yard?’ Next, you ask yourself if this can be tested. If it can be tested, you’ll write a hypothesis that states what you expect to find. Your hypothesis could be ‘If lower temperatures cause leaves to change color and the temperature surrounding a tree is decreased, then the leaves will change color.’

A hypothesis is used in an experiment to define the relationship between two variables. The purpose of a hypothesis is to find the answer to a question. A formalized hypothesis will force us to think about what results we should look for in an experiment.

The first variable is called the independent variable. This is the part of the experiment that can be changed and tested. The independent variable happens first and can be considered the cause of any changes in the outcome. The outcome is called the dependent variable. The independent variable in our previous example is not studying for a test. The dependent variable that you are using to measure outcome is your test score.

Let’s use the previous example again to illustrate these ideas. The hypothesis is testable because you will receive a score on your test performance. It is measurable because you can compare test scores received from when you did study and test scores received from when you did not study.

A hypothesis should always:

• Explain what you expect to happen
• Be clear and understandable
• Be testable
• Be measurable
• And contain an independent and dependent variable

Researchers use hypothesis to put down their thoughts directing how the experiment would take place. Following are the steps that are involved in the scientific method:

Formation of question

Doing background research

Creation of hypothesis

Designing an experiment

Collection of data

Result analysis

Summarizing the experiment

Communicating the results

Following are the sources of hypothesis:

The resemblance between the phenomenon.

Observations from past studies, present-day experiences and from the competitors.

Scientific theories.

General patterns that influence the thinking process of people.

Let’s consider a hypothesis that many teachers might subscribe to: that students work better on Monday morning than they do on a Friday afternoon (IV=Day, DV=Standard of work).

Now, if we decide to study this by giving the same group of students a lesson on a Monday morning and on a Friday afternoon and then measuring their immediate recall on the material covered in each session we would end up with the following:

The alternative hypothesis states that students will recall significantly more information on a Monday morning than on a Friday afternoon.

The null hypothesis states that there will be no significant difference in the amount recalled on a Monday morning compared to a Friday afternoon. Any difference will be due to chance or confounding factors.

The null hypothesis is, therefore, the opposite of the alternative hypothesis in that it states that there will be no change in behavior.

At this point, you might be asking why we seem so interested in the null hypothesis. Surely the alternative (or experimental) hypothesis is more important?

Well, yes it is. However, we can never 100% prove the alternative hypothesis. What we do instead is see if we can disprove, or reject, the null hypothesis.

If we reject the null hypothesis, this doesn’t really mean that our alternative hypothesis is correct – but it does provide support for the alternative / experimental hypothesis.